While there is general agreement about the benefits of fixed-date elections, the impact on voter behaviour and the political process remains largely unknown. In particular, political parties and decision-makers are largely ignorant of the profound change that set election dates are having on the way they operate.
One of the main reasons advanced for fixed-election dates is that, previously, governments could call an election at their discretion.
Although the benefits of this power is largely overstated, this meant that a party in power could call a vote at a time that was advantageous or postpone a vote if the political omens were unfavourable.
A set election date, we are told, would prevent this abuse of power and provide a clear timeframe for the electorate, which might address concerns over voter turnout.
One clear benefit of set election dates is that it allows the supervising organization, Elections New Brunswick, with plenty of lead time to organize for a province-wide vote. While set election dates are a benefit to Elections NB, it is a mixed blessing for everyone else.
The biggest loser is the governing party, which loses the ability to set the election date at its discretion. The bad news for the party in power does not stop there.
Prior to the call of any election, there is always the period of time when the various parties aggressively jostle for position and where the political rhetoric starts to mount. Although the writ has not dropped, initial messages and tactics are tested and candidates are recruited and profiled.
Under a floating date system, this “phoney war” period was generally limited to the several weeks prior to the election call.
The political parties, including the one in power, needed this time to mobilize their volunteer organizations, finalize election strategies, and prepare for the all-out effort that would cover the six or seven weeks of the election campaign.
However, a set date election dramatically increases the length of the “phoney war” period.
Instead of having an organization that can be called into being on a few weeks notice, the various parties now need to spend months building and maintaining their respective organizations.
Rather than an intense, but brief, period where political volunteers and candidates are pressed into action, this extended period of political activity is far more demanding and requires much more from the volunteers that constitute the backbone of riding-level campaigns.
Sustaining the morale and level of effort over this extended period is far more demanding on the governing party, which has more ground to defend, than on the opposition parties.
This extended “phoney war” also undermines many of the other advantages that governing parties used to enjoy before fixed date elections.
There is greater public scrutiny of their activities and, months before the election is even called, their activities and initiatives are viewed through the lens of electoral impact.
When a new program or funding announcement is made through the course of a mandate, it is typically treated as government policy. The government politician receives the bulk of media coverage and that is usually the end of it.
However, during the “phoney war”, this announcement is treated in the same way as an election promise, with all that it implies, and all the opposition parties are solicited by the media for their views. The clean “media hit” of before has now become a partisan free-for-all.
Further, given that the electorate knows that an election is impending, any announcement make during the “phoney war” period is seen as a partisan exercise rather than the result of good policy or daily governing.
With the electorate already applying an “election discount” to government party initiatives, the increased coverage of opposition views further diminishes the impact of pre-election announcements.
Voters find this extended political season both fatiguing and frustrating. Rather than increasing public interest in the election, voters become alienated when partisan jockeying is seen to overtake the conduct of public business.
Taking the 2010 Provincial Election as a guide, New Brunswick enters the “phoney war” period in the first weeks of May.
At the present time, the Alward Government enjoys all the benefits of incumbency. In a few short weeks, however, they will find that the overall political environment has changed significantly.
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This article was originally published in the March 17, 2014 edition of the Telegraph-Journal.
Good article.
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