A New Riding Map for New Brunswick

COMMENTARY

20 SEP 2012 05:41PM

Editor’s Note: The following is the transcription of a presentation given by Chris Baker to the Federal Riding Boundaries Commission in Fredericton on Sept. 13, 2012.

I want to thank the Commissioners for the opportunity to comment on their proposal for the revised federal riding boundaries in New Brunswick. This is a challenging and complex task, and public comment on your work will strengthen the final proposal.

It is a benefit to this process to have distinguished jurists take on the task of determining riding boundaries. Your patience and experience, especially in weighing various points of view and reconciling conflicting position, will serve New Brunswickers and the democratic process well.

My name is Chris Baker and I am a resident of Fredericton. This will be the fourth boundary commission that I have appeared before and my second experience at the federal level.

My profession is public opinion research with an emphasis on public policy. I work with numbers and with information, both of which are crucial to the exercise that we are participating in today.

Our system of representative democracy has very deep and ancient roots. Even before the time of the Norman Conquest, the rulers in that ancient time required the consent of the governed, which was granted through the gathering of local leaders and representatives. Even though our current parliamentary system is more formal and more modern, the importance of community representation is still important in the days of universal franchise and representation by population.

While we often speak of numeric equality as an important factor in the representation that is provided at the local level, we also need to speak to the quality of the representation that can be affected, positively and negatively, by riding boundaries. It is for this reason that the Commissioners have the discretion, within limits, to create ridings that are not strictly equal in population.

In addition to the ability to reflect the community of interest, there are a number of important factors that need to be taken into consideration when determining the riding boundaries.

As much as possible, ridings should be geographically compact. Further, there should be strong links – economic, social and physical – between all parts of the proposed riding.

The demographic and social composition of the riding should be balanced and fair, especially when minority communities are involved. I should state that this factor does not refer exclusively to language and includes factors such as economic activity and socio-economic status.

Which future demographic trends cannot be considered in your deliberations, there is no question that the demographic changes identified in the 2011 Census will have a profound impact on the way ridings are determined. We have seen a dramatic growth of urban, suburban and satellite communities in the South. There are areas in rural New Brunswick that are losing population, more so in the North than in the South.

I believe that the time has come to consider some new options in the way that riding boundaries are constituted in our Province.

I would like to present the Commission with an alternate version of how the ridings in our province should be constructed. To the best of my ability, I have reviewed the new census information and, using what I know about the various regions and communities in New Brunswick, have prepared a new riding map for the Province.

This proposal provides stability for the ridings in the northern and central parts of New Brunswick. It also takes a fresh approach to the traditional riding boundaries in the South.

Let’s start with the South and the most critical failing of the current (and proposed) boundaries. I propose that the City of Saint John, currently represented by one riding adhering to the city boundaries, be split between two ridings – Saint John-Charlotte and Saint John-Central Kings.

The greater Saint John region extends far beyond the Saint John City boundaries. To the west, the region extends to the growing communities of Grand Bay-Westfield, Lorneville and Lepreau. To the North, the region includes Quispamsis, Rothesay, the Kingston Peninsula. To the East, St., Martins and parts of the Fundy region are closely tied to the urban area.

To have one riding that is only the City of Saint John severs these other closely bound communities from their central core. Further, putting the suburban and bedroom communities of the Saint John region into largely rural ridings marginalizes their community of interest, which would be better served by two urban-rural ridings centered on Saint John.

Southwest New Brunswick, as proposed, is a large and disparate riding that runs from the City of Fredericton to the Fundy Isles. While it can be argued that the disparity of distance is not fully resolved by creating a riding that includes part of the City of Saint John, the western part of Saint John County and Charlotte County, the riding is both more geographically compact and better represents the interests of residents than the current riding.

Fundy–Quispamsis is highly problematic, taking in the suburban areas of the Moncton CMA and the Saint John region, with all the rural parts in between. A new riding, Saint John-Central Kings, would combine the City of Saint John with the surrounding urban, suburban and rural areas east of the Saint John River Valley, again resulting in a riding that is more compact and more representative of the communities it intends to serve.

Moving east, I am proposing that a new riding, Sussex-Riverview, take the place of the current riding of Fundy Royal. This new riding, which includes the Towns of Sussex and Riverview, would be a urban-rural mix that is more compact and more homogenous from a socio-economic point of view. While Riverview is part of the Moncton CMA, it has string ties to the surrounding rural areas and almost exclusively Anglophone.

By moving Riverview into this riding, we also help repair the linguistic balance of the new Moncton riding that was altered when the Commissioners decided to move Dieppe into the riding of Beausejour. The City of Moncton has enough population to be represented by one riding.

I would suggest that part of Moncton Parish be added to Sussex-Riverview with the portion on the east side of Dieppe retained by Dieppe-Beausejour. This would reduce the population of Dieppe Beausejour which, at 92,000 people, is the largest riding in terms of population.

With regard to Miramichi, the Commissioners have moved the North Shore communities of Belldune, Durham and Colburne to the riding of Madawaska-Restigouche. Although this is a geographic anomaly, I would recommend that these communities be restored to the Miramichi riding, which would also increase its population to better respect the principle of representation by population. The stability of representation would also be maintained.

Of course, if Madawaska-Restigouche loses population in the east, it should take up more population in the west. Therefore, I recommend that Saint Andre, Drummond and Grand Falls become part of the this riding in the North West.

With changes in the south, the riding of Tobique-Saint John Valley has an opportunity to include the valley communities that were previously in Southwest N.B. This provides a more homogenous, compact and populated riding.

As for the Fredericton riding, there is no question in my mind that the communities of Chipman and Minto are part of the community of interest that should be represented in this riding.

Overall, this proposal provides a more coherent presentation of the communities of interest that should be represented in the new riding boundaries. Further, it mitigates the extremes of population represented by Dieppe-Beausejour at one end and Miramichi at the other.

I will provide a copy of this proposed riding map, as well as the Excel spreadsheet used to calculate the riding populations, to the Commission for their reference.

Thank you.

-30 -

Chris Baker is President of Continuum Research, a New Brunswick-based public opinion research firm specializing in public affairs and public policy. The assistance of William Blanchette in the preparation of the map and demographic analysis is gratefully appreciated.