Representing the Capital Region

Michael de Adder’s choice of a Rubik’s Cube as a metaphor for the process to change representation in the Legislative Assembly is a very appropriate metaphor. In the effort to get a single colour on one side, the other sides become a jumble. Since the goal of the puzzle is to get all six sides in harmony, the solution can be frustrating and elusive.

The Rubik’s Cube of determining effective and appropriate riding boundaries is also elusive and frustrating. Not only must the Commissioners determine ridings of equal numerical value to respect the principle of “one person, one vote”, they also need to consider the other factors that go into effective riding design: reflecting communities of interest, the internal ties, respecting municipal and administrative boundaries, ensuring the effective representation of rural areas and so on.

Getting one side of this cube right, achieving the numerical equality of the ridings, does not resolve the whole puzzle. In fact, it often leaves the other sides of the cube a complete jumble. But, rather than abandoning this puzzle as “impossible” a fresh approach may be the solution.

Currently, representation in the Capital Area is fairly straight-forward. The City of Fredericton is represented by four ridings. The riding of Oromocto is largely urban and York, York North and Grand Lake Gagetown are rural. New Maryland – Sunbury West is a hybrid urban-rural riding.

On the other hand, the Preliminary Report Proposal relies heavily on “hybrid” urban-rural ridings. Instead of four ridings, the City of Fredericton is now represented by only two ridings that are exclusively urban. The rest of the City of Fredericton is split into urban-rural ridings (Nashwaaksis-Stanley and Hanwell-Silverwood) or are included in existing ridings (New Maryland – Sunbury West, Oromocto-Lincoln, and Grand Lake) outside of Fredericton.

Aside from the fact that this proposal effectively diminishes the voice of residents of the City of Fredericton in the Legislative Assembly, it also has a negative impact on the nearby rural areas, which currently have their own representation in the Legislature.

It has been a long-established principle that the best riding boundaries are those that reflect common communities of interest, provide for effective representation of these interests, and avoid, as much as is reasonably possible, creating minority communities within ridings that could become disenfranchised in relation to the majority.

To provide advice to the Commissioners in accordance with their legislated mandate, the NB Riding Boundaries Project Team has created a solution that addresses the need to provide effective representation of local interests while abiding by the numerical equality of voters in each riding.

As you will see from the attached map, we propose that the City of Fredericton, along with the Village of New Maryland, be represented by four ridings in a Legislative Assembly of 49 members. Further, we retain the rural ridings of York, York North and Grand Lake and create a new urban-rural riding of Oromocto-Lincoln.

In our view, this proposal respects the need for effective representation of both urban and rural voters from the Capital Area in the Legislative Assembly. The Village of New Maryland has a strong connection with the City of Fredericton, just as the Village of Lincoln shares strong ties with the Town of Oromocto and adjacent LSDs.

And, to be sure that all six sides of this Rubik Cube policy are the right colours, this proposal exists within an overall proposal of 49 ridings – each numerically equal and representative – that was presented to the Commission last week.

This is not a perfect solution, but it is a good solution, to the difficult situation outlined in the Commission’s Preliminary Report.

 

Proposed Capital Area Ridings (Voter Counts, Variance from Electoral Quotient)
#	Proposed Riding Name	# of Voters	Variance from EQ	Variance
36	Oromocto – Lincoln	11,744	104.2%	+475
37	Grand Lake – Gagetown	11,406	101.2%	+137
38	Fredericton – Nashwaaksis	11,368	100.9%	+99
39	Fredericton - Fort Nashwaak	11,065	98.2%	-204
40	Fredericton - New Maryland	11,467	101.8%	+198
41	Fredericton South	11,439	101.5%	+170
42	York	11,728	104.1%	+459
43	York North	11,172	99.1%	-97

If you would like to make comments on this proposal, or to view the province-wide riding map that we propose, please visit Total Quality Politics at http://rookwilcorner.blogspot.ca/

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Chris Baker is President of Continuum Research, a Fredericton-based public opinion research firm specializing in Public Policy, Public Affairs and Strategic Planning. The work of William Blanchette, Bob Doiron and Brian McCain, colleagues on the NB Riding Boundaries Project Team, contributed to this article.

 

This article was originally published in the March 19, 2013 edition of The Daily Gleaner.